WHAT WILL BE HAPPENING IF USA DEBTS FALL IN DEFAUT?
NHỮNG ẢNH HƯỞNG GIÂY CHUYỀN CỦA SỰ CỐ HOA KỲ KHỦNG HOẢNG CHÍNH TRỊ VÀ TÀI CHÁNH TRÊN THẾ GIỚI NẾU XẨY RA:
(Tùy Bút phóng sự Kinh Tế, Xã Hội)
Tổng Quát: Sang ngày thứ 12, Vụ việc Shutdown của Hoa Kỳ & Vấn Đề Nâng Cao Nợ Trần để Giải Quyết những Thanh Khoản định kỳ vào 10/17/2013 sắp tới gần như ngày càng căng thẳng cho Nội Các của TT B. Obama, Đảng Dân Chủ, vẫn đang bị Đa Số Phiếu của Hạ Viện Cộng Hòa cưỡng chế theo Luật. Mức Nợ Trần của Hoa Kỳ nếu không được nâng cao, sẽ đưa Hoa Kỳ vào tình trạng Mất Uy Tìn và có thể cón nhiều ảnh hưởng tai hại khác trên CĐ Thế Giới. Chúng ta cùng tìm hiểu qua Tin Tức hôm nay, trong nhiều Nguồn Tin liên hệ v/v này.
Các Dữ Kiện Đó Đây:
At the start of the current US budget standoff, other countries viewed the situation with a mix of sympathy, concern and bemusement. With the 17 October deadline for raising the debt ceiling approaching, however, the international view has changed to fear and anger. ‘Fundamentally wrong’ – L Ian MacDonald -Columnist, Ottawa Citizen – “What is chilling is that US politicians are willing to engage in a game of brinkmanship that is tantamount to detonating a nuclear device over their economy,” writes the Times of India. “A bunch of intransigent American politicians are holding not just President Barack Obama, but the entire world to ransom.” ‘Thanks, Washington’: Twenty dollar bills roll through a government printing press. A debt default could cause a large drop in the value of US currency. As America’s largest trading partner, Canada faces a heightened threat, as well.
L Ian MacDonald, a columnist for the Ottawa Citizen, writes, “This is a matter involving the good faith and credit of the United States.” And because the crisis is already causing the Canadian dollar to increase in value relative to the US dollar, it is adversely affecting Canadian exports. “Thanks, Washington, we needed that,” he writes.
Economic Times – IMF says US, emerging economies pose greater risk to global – The economic crisis in Europe has largely been overcome, says the IMF. In a reversal of roles, it’s the United States and emerging economies that pose the larger risk for global economic growth – not the eurozone. -Deutsche Welle-Oct 10, 2013 – IMF says US, emerging economies pose greater risk to global economy. The economic crisis in Europe has largely been overcome, says the …
The current financial crisis is the worst the world has seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. For younger generations, accustomed to mild recessions of the new phase of globalization, the misery of the Great Depression is hitherto nothing more than a distant legend. However, the collapse of two Bear Stearns Hedge funds in summer of 2007 exposed what came to be known as the subprime mortgage crisis, reintroducing the world to an era of bank failures, a credit crunch, private defaults and massive layoffs. In the new, globalized world of closely interdependent economies, the crisis affected almost every part of the world, receiving extensive coverage in the international media. “In an Interconnected World, American Homeowner Woes Can Be Felt from Beijing to Rio de Janeiro,” observed the International Herald Tribune at the onset of the crisis. “Chinese Steelmakers Shiver, Indian Miners Catch Flu,” noted the Hindustan Times. “US and China Must Tame Imbalances Together,” suggested YaleGlobal, as the frenzied search for a solution continues around the globe.
In this special report, YaleGlobal offers essential information on why the crisis started, how it affected the industries and consumers around the world, and what solutions have been proposed by experts and regulators across countries.
Ảnh Hưởng Tương Lai: Ra Sao?
Theo ý kiến của nhiều Nguồn như:
Anyone who remembers the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. little more than five years ago knows what a global financial disaster is. A U.S. government default, just weeks away if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling as it now threatens to do, will be an economic calamity like none the world has ever seen. A U.S. Default Seen as Catastrophe Dwarfing Lehman’s Fall …
5 days ago – A U.S. government default, just weeks away if Congress fails to raise the debt … The $12 trillion of outstanding government debt is 23 times the $517 billion … It would also undermine the role of the U.S. in the world economy.” … either, most say the chances of it happening now are higher than in the past. Failure by the world’s largest borrower to pay its debt — unprecedented in modern history — will devastate stock markets from Brazil to Zurich, halt a $5 trillion lending mechanism for investors who rely on Treasuries, blow up borrowing costs for billions of people and companies, ravage the dollar and throw the U.S. and world economies into a recession that probably would become a depression. Among the dozens of money managers, economists, bankers, traders and former government officials interviewed for this story, few view a U.S. default as anything but a financial apocalypse.
Here are seven of the most immediate and severe side-effects if lawmakers fail to raise the debt ceiling in time to avoid default:
1. Depression and unemployment
Financial shockwaves, beginning at the Treasury and Federal Reserve, would make their way through banks and eventually blow a hole through the Main Street economy. Just as in the 2008 financial crisis, businesses would quit hiring amid the uncertainty. The unemployment rate would rise from its current 7.3 percent.
As an illustration, the jobless rate was 5.0 percent in December 2007, about where it had been for the previous 30 months, according to the Labor Department. By the time the Great Recession ended, it was at 9.5 percent, and peaked at 10.0 percent in October 2009.
A slew of other events would slam the economy: A drop in stock market prices, hurting many Americans’ 401(k) investments; the seizing up of bank lending; and the U.S. losing standing in the international marketplace. With U.S. economic growth still below 3 percent, it wouldn’t take that much to send the nation into a financial tailspin.
2. Dollar down, prices and rates up
Video: All four house leaders met at a bipartisan meeting Wednesday, reports CNBC’s Eamon Javers. However, President Obama is disappointed only a small number of the Republican conference will meet with him on Thursday.
Among the biggest impacts could be mass selling of the U.S. dollar, an event that would threaten the greenback’s standing as the world’s reserve currency.
That would pound consumers’ buying power by boosting prices for everything from groceries to clothing to the gas we pump into our cars.
“In the event of an actual default, Treasury yields and other borrowing costs would probably rise and remain higher,” warned Julian Jessop, Capital’s chief global economist.
So homeowners and prospective homeowners would have to say goodbye to the low mortgage rates they have enjoyed while the Federal Reserve has kept its foot on the economy’s gas pedal.
“All the money you’re gonna have is under your pillow, and it probably won’t be worth as much as it is today,” Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital Management told CNBC’s Squawk on the Street. “But I don’t think we’re going to get to that apoplectic point in the U.S.”
3. Down go your investments
Stocks have had a rough week, with the S&P 500 and Dow industrials off about 2 percent each and the Nasdaq down nearly 4 percent. That raises worries for many Americans whose nest-eggs are held in company 401(k)s and other retirement accounts.
During the last financial crisis in 2008, major U.S. equity indexes tumbled, with the S&P 500 Index losing 37 percent for the year, which translated into big losses for many 401(k) retirement plan assets, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute.
Just how individual 401(k) participants were affected by the downturn largely depended on the mix of assets in their funds. For example, investors with a high percentage of their 401(k) in stocks (versus bonds or cash) took a bigger hit than those with more balanced funds.
While many analysts have been trumpeting the market’s refusal to panic over the prospect of a default, that relatively sanguine reaction likely would change.
Estimates among Wall Street analysts are the market would drop between 10 percent and 20 percent — with the upper end at what Wall Street defines as a bear market.
4. Social Security payments halt
The current projection for the government to run out of money to pay its daily bills is Oct. 17. Economists believe, though, that the Treasury would have enough money on hand to pay its $12 billion Social Security payment due that day, as well as another one on Oct. 25.
That may not be the case come Nov. 1, though, when there’s a $25 billion payment due, meaning that checks may not get issued past that date.
Nov. 15 stands as a larger date overall when the Treasury won’t be able to make a $30 billion debt payment.
“We strongly suspect the current impasse over spending and the debt ceiling will have been resolved well before then,” Capital Economics said in a report. “There is also a chance if the shutdown was still in effect at that point then the Treasury, perhaps with the Federal Reserve’s help, would be able to avoid a default somehow. But in a worst case scenario, this is the date to watch.”
5. Banking operations freeze up
One chilling data point: American banks own $1.85 trillion in various government-backed debt, Bove calculated.
The effect, then, of a default on that debt would be devastating.
“If the Treasury and related securities were in default, one does not know what they would be worth,” Bove said. “Assume a Latin American valuation of 10 to 20 cents on the dollar and an estimated $1.28 trillion in U.S. banking equity would be wiped out.”
The potential result?
“It is my strong belief that a true default by the United States Treasury would wipe out bank equity,” he said. “All bank lending to the private sector in the United States would stop, immediately. Existing loans would not be rolled over. Immediate repayment would be demanded.”
6. Money market funds break
The $2.7 trillion money market industry operates on a basic premise: Millions of American depositors won’t lose money.
That agreement broke briefly, with one fund, during the 2008 financial crisis, to destructive effect on investor confidence. It could happen again in the event of a default.
A recent Federal Reserve study said the damage during the crisis eventually could have involved 28 funds that would have “broken the buck.” Bove said a default would hit “virtually every money market fund in the country.”
“At present, (money market funds) that do not actually earn enough money to pay back 100 cents on the dollar are subsidized by the fund management company,” Bove said. “A Treasury default would make this virtually impossible and millions of Americans would lose billions of dollars.”
7. Global markets walloped
Some of our biggest trading partners are equally rattled by the prospect of the U.S. defaulting on its debt. The International Monetary Fund this week warned that a default would push the U.S. economy back into recession and cause “major disruptions” for global markets. Meanwhile, China and Japan — the largest foreign holders of U.S. Treasury debt — have stepped up calls for quick action. China and Japan held $1.28 trillion and $1.14 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities, respectively, as of July 2013, according to U.S. government data. A fall in U.S. government bond prices would deplete the value of their reserves. Saber-rattling by China and other foreign investors aside, there is little actual chance the governments who own America’s debt would actually sell it. To do so would cause a panic that would make their investments worthless — the diplomatic equivalent of cutting off their nose to spite their face. That said, investors might see a dip in the value of their international funds.
ELI5: what will probably happen in Europe if USA goes in default …
19 hours ago – Will Europe be in trouble, like for debts or security? … ELI5: what will probably happen in Europe if USA goes in default? … will be tremendously devalued, and the entire credibility of our treasury as a reputable lender will fall.
Debt ceiling: Understanding what’s at stake – CBS News
5 days ago – What happens if Congress doesn’t raise the debt ceiling? … At that point, the U.S. would be in default of its obligations. … “When stock prices fall, investment or other spending to expand a business is more costly,” the Treasury …
Raising the debt ceiling: What happens if we default? | WJLA.com
4 days ago – Eventually, the economy would almost surely slip into another financial crisis and … Yet given the risk of a default, investors would demand higher rates on new U.S. debt. … On top of that, stock markets would likely fall.
Oct 4, 2013 – There is no way the United States will default on its debt. … Were the value of Treasurys to fall sharply due to a default or even a perceived default, it would make what happened in 2008 after the Lehman debacle look like a …
Sep 10, 2012 – The false fear of which I speak is the chance of US debt default. … also Japan and the UK), it is technically impossible to fall into debt default. … Or it could happen if divided government was not able to agree on instructions …
what happens if the national debt defaults – Money Morning – Only …
3 days ago – What happens if the US government can’t resolve its budget crisis by … A possible default would see the price of the bonds fall in value and …
Tạm Kết: Quý độc giả cũng như chúng tôi vừa xem qua những Tai Hại giây chuyền, nếu Hoa Kỳ khiếm nợ và càng nợ, từ đó những sinh hoạt tài chánh, đầu tư, xuất nhập cảng, giao thương và nhiều lãnh vực sẽ xuống cấp và mất dần Chất Lượng tối đẹp cũng như hi vọng cho nền Kinh Tế Toàn Cầu và Khu Vực. Riêng Hoa Kỳ có thể đi đến Dạng Phá Sản và không rõ Liên Hiệp Quốc cũng như các Liên Minh Kinh Tế sẽ ra sao?
Tuy vì Chất Lượng nguy hiểm khi Nợ Trần của Hoa Kỳ, vì mâu thuẫn Chính Trị Nội Bộ, có thể xẩy ra và ảnh hưởng đến Toàn Cầu. Nhưng nếu để xẩy ra, thì đâu còn Thể Diện của Mỹ và các Đồng Minh Tây Phương nữa? Do đo mà chúng tôi tin tưởng rẳng, cũng như nhưng lần trước, Hoa Kỳ vẫn cón Biện Pháp, cho tới ngày chót? Chg tôi hy vọng rằng Hoa Kỳ và các LMKT Đồng Minh, kể những Nền Kinh Tế cạnh tranh cũng đều góp Hoa Kỳ một Bàn Tay không lâu. Như vậy, chúng tôi vẫn tin rằng nền Kinh Tế & Tài Chánh Hoa Kỷ & Toàn Cầu, khi chạm đáy, sẽ được cứu chữa. Tuy vậy chúng tôi & quý vị vẫn phải chời coi thôi.
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(Như đã Chứng Minh trên – Xin mời độc giả xem chi tiết bằng Anh Ngữ, theo mỗi Nguồn diễn đat Phương Thức của mình).